Russia is at risk of becoming a failed state or even breaking up by 2033 as the economy flounders due to the long-term impact of Western sanctions, according to a new survey conducted by the Atlantic Council.
The poll garnered the views of 167 experts on what they think the world will look like in 10 years. While 46% of respondents expect Russia to splinter by 2033, 21% see it as the most likely country to become a doomed state.
“One of the most surprising takeaways was how many respondents pointed to a potential Russian collapse over the next decade — suggesting that the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine could precipitate hugely consequential upheaval in a great power with the largest nuclear-weapons arsenal on the planet,” the think-tank said.
Moreover, 40% of respondents expect Russia to break up internally by 2033 because of “revolution, civil war, political disintegration.”
Russia’s economy has been crumbling in the face of Western sanctions imposed on the country following its invasion of Ukraine. In November, it slipped into recession eight months after Moscow launched its attack.
The nation’s central bank has warned that a ban on Russian oil and a price cap on its crude announced by the European Union were “new economic shocks” that could choke activity in the coming months. The sanctions, which were imposed late last year, aim to squeeze revenues for Moscow’s wartime economy.
Experts told Insider that Moscow’s isolation from the West could result in a disaster for its economy. While Russia has been trying to reduce the impact of sanctions by working exclusively with “friendly” nations, experts say it is a “recipe for long-term stagnation.”
Meanwhile, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg wrote in a new op-ed for Financial Times. that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to launch a war against Ukraine has left the country “poorer and more isolated than for decades.”
Other gloomy geopolitical developments are expected to occur over time, according to the think-tank. That includes a potential Chinese military invasion of Taiwan within the next 10 years.
* Business Insider